Sunday, September 28, 2014

The world's population is expected to reach 11 billion in 2100

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A new study from the University of Washington, in the United States, and the United Nations (UN) quantified for the first time with great precision the evolution of the world's population throughout the 21ST century. Conclusions? In 2100 we will be 11 billion, rather than the previous statistics indicated.

Previous studies suggested that the world's population should start declining from the second half of the century, but the new study comes to counter this hypothesis and affirming that there is 70% probability of the number of people inhabiting the planet rise from the current seven billion to 11 billion at the end of the century. Such a hypothesis represents serious challenges at the level of food resources, water, medical care and social cohesion.

"Previous projections indicated that the issue would fade and attention were diverted from the population issue," says Adrian Raftery, University of Washington researcher, cites the Guardian. "There's a strong argument for the population back to the top of the international agenda. The population is the catalyst of all the rest and a rapid population growth can exacerbate all kinds of challenges, "indicates. The lack of health care, increased crime rates, poverty and pollution are just some of the current problems that will be exponenciados.

The region where the population is expected to grow more in sub-Saharan Africa, where the population can grow to 5 billion in 2100. The drop in fertility rates, which began in 1980, in many of these countries should continue, but the latest data indicate otherwise. In countries like Nigeria, the most populous on the African continent, the decline in fertility rates has already been reversed, with the average women to have six children. The population of Nigeria is expected to increase from the current 200 million to 900 million in 2100.

Another factor is included for the first time in the study were data on HIV and AIDS, which indicate that the epidemic is killing as many people as previously thought, especially in African countries. "For 20 years the impact on population was absolutely gigantic. Now, the accessibility of antiretrovirals is much higher and the epidemic seems to have passed its peak, "says Adrian Raftery.

Foto: India Photography / Creative Commons

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